Predicting fusarium head scab (Fusarium graminearum Schwabe) in winter wheat using near real-time weather

摘要

The Fusarium epidemic of 1996 in winter wheat was a financial disaster in the province of Ontario in Canada. The Ontario Wheat Producers' Marketing Board (Source: Jim Whitelaw) estimates a 30 % yield loss, which equates to a 230,000 T loss in volume.At CDN 150/T dollar, this equates to a direct loss to producers of CDN 34.5 million dollar. Deoxynivalenol contamination resulted in a quality penalty on about 750,000 T of CDN 45/T dollar on average, another CDN 33.75 million dollar loss to the industry. The crop was extremely difficult to market, resulting in an additional CDN 15/T dollar marketing cost totaUng about CDN 11.25 million dollar. Another CDN 20-30 million dollar was lost to the industry for buying replacement wheat stocks. The total lossto the Fusarium epidemic was well over CDN 100 million dollar.