Following a weakening world economic outlook, a crucial question facing commodity producers and exporters is whether commodity prices will decline sharply on world markets, leading to significantly lower export revenues and returns. World economic growth, which is of critical importance to the direction of world commodity prices, is assumed to ease in 2001, but to strengthen in 2002. Toward 2006, world economic growth is assumed to moderate gradually to a more sustainable pace. Reflecting a relatively low Australian dollar, Australia's commodity exports are forecast to rise to 86 billion dollar in 2000-01 and 89 billion dollar in 2001-02, but then to trend downward in real terms over the reminder of the outlook period (to 2005-06).
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