Grains: Outlook to 2004-05

摘要

In the short term the global grains marker will continue to be dominated by relatively high world stocks. However, strengthening demand in 2000-01 is likely to underpin a forecast increase in world grain prices. Total Australian cropping area is projected to decrease from 20.6 million hectares in 1999-2000 to 20 million hectares in 2004-05, reflecting continued low returns to grain growers. Reforms to agricultural policies in the main producing countries have potential to benefit Australian grain and oilseed producers over the medium term. Demand for cereals and oilseeds is expected to be supported by increasing per person income, increased consumption of animal products, and population growth in developing countries.