Making up one's mind some reflections on determinism and probabilistics for decisions about safety and risk

摘要

Assessments of the reliability, safety, and risk of complex sociotechnical systems are usually based on probabilistic risk analysis. Experience indicates, however, that there is a tendency to replace probabilistic considerations with deterministic statements, in particular in final decisions. Some reflections are made in the present treatise about the philosophical and psychological conditions for handling such biases in risk assessments.