This paper proposes a new method for Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM). The present method gives a time-evolution law of a distribution function of a crack geometry, which is obtained from initial random variables and a deterministic time-evolution law of the variables. A numerical example of a Light Water Reactor (LWR)'s piping problem is solved by the present method and the results are compared with those of the Monte Carlo (MC) method. Both results agree sufficiently well, while CPU time of the present method is remarkably short.
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