Implied Historical Federal Reserve Bank Behavior Under Uncertainty

摘要

This paper presents the implied United States Federal Reserve Bank (FED) policy behavior under multiplicative model and shock uncertainty, defined through performance objectives, cases by using historical data. Robust system theory frameworks are used to empirically study the characteristics of the FED short-term interest rate-inflation dynamics under different circumstances by using a single-input single-output model. The main result of this study demonstrates that the historical FED actions was conservative under model and shock uncertainty.