Modelling the nurses employment dynamics in the ageing society

摘要

Nurses play an important role in the ageing societies. Ageing of population results in increased number of older adults who need nursing care and shortage of nurses poses serious concern for the ageing society. Understanding the patterns of workforce entrance and exit for nurses and its dynamics is important for the policy makers in the ageing societies. Sustainable provision of care for older adults models the supporting decision making and policies related to the long term care in general and nursing profession in particular, are not developed yet, according to the documents of the European commission. In the paper, we present a multiple decrement model of nurses’ workforce entrances, transitions and exits from nursing student, nurse trainee, fully productive nurse to their exits, namely exit by changed profession, exit by retirement or exit by death. The availability of nurses in national economy depends on the appropriate policies, where education, motivation and profession promotion are crucial. Model allows measuring the quality of the national policy system related to the nursing profession, which has not been developed yet and shows how the optimal policy for increasing working period and influence of investment in promotional and motivational solutions and education for the nurses increases their availability in the long term. It is an objective measuring tool, which is grounded on an actuarial - mathematical method. Therefore, the objective of the paper is to develop an actuarial model for determining the quality of the appropriate policies, education, motivation and profession promotion in national economies, which is highly relevant for the EU member states. The case is built based on the collection and analysis of data gained in relevant statistical reports for the Republic of Slovenia. Collected statistical data will enable better forecast of nurses’ exit. The model will enable measurement of the impact of corporate governance, organizational learning, and knowledge management on availability of nurses at organizational, regional and national levels.