Bullwhip Effect of Weighted Moving Average Forecast under Stochastic Lead Time

摘要

The bullwhip effect is well-known as the propagation of fluctuation from downstream to upstream under stochastic demand. Researches in literature assume deterministic lead time, but it may be stochastic because of disruption of production. In this article we analyze the bullwhip effect of weighted moving average forecast under stochastic lead time. Under a general setting we express a performance measure on bullwhip effect theoretically. Numerical results give effects of parameters of forecasting and the lead time distribution on the bullwhip effect.