A Maximum Entropy/Ecological Niche Modeling Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Leischmaniasis under Climate Change

摘要

Leishmaniasis is a life-threatening disease caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Leishmania and is transmitted by the bite of several species of sand fly (subfamily Phlebotominae). Global climate change has the potential to alter the distribution of these insect vectors. Here I use maximum entropy (maxent) ecological niche modeling (ENM) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-vetted MK3.0/Scenario A1B global climate model to predict the potential geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (here regarded as proxy for leischmaniasis distribution) by the year 2060. The simulation predicts that leischmaniasis will retain its current distribution in South America, and could spread to the east coast of Africa and the northern half of Australia.