Using LMDI method to analyze the energy-related CO_2 emissions in Guangdong Province, China

摘要

In recent years, Guangdong has achieved remarkable performance in economic development; meanwhile it is being faced with problems of increasing CO_2 emissions. Following the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, we estimated the energy-related CO_2 emissions in Guangdong during the period of 1980-2010. We employed the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method to decompose the CO_2 emissions into energy intensity, energy structure, per capita GDP and population scale effects. Besides, we deduced the calculation methods for the year by year effects, the accumulated effects and the contribution degrees. Using 1980 as the base year, the empirical results show that the accumulated effects of energy intensity and energy structure in 2010 are negative, while those of per capita GDP and population scale are positive. Per capita GDP is the chief positive influence on the CO_2 emissions. Energy intensity is becoming more significant; however, its direction is instability. Population scale has a significant positive effect on the CO_2 emissions. Energy structure has a negligible negative impact on the CO_2 emissions. Some suggestions on CO_2 emissions reduction in Guangdong are given based on the analysis.