Risk Prediction Analysis of Oil Spill for the Channel of Changxing Island

摘要

This paper adopted the model of the particles to predict oil film dynamic drift process. The prediction was supposed to happen in the channel of Changxing Island, and it carried through under four kinds of circumstances. The circumstances are no wind condition, NNE, WSW and SSW. Through simulating the drift process on the oil film motion, the affection after the oil spilling is analyzed, especially the influence to the sensitive targets. Thus, it can provide certain guiding role for the establishment of contingency plans.