China's Real Estate Control Policies and Housing Price Fluctuations

摘要

This paper constructs a VAR model, empirically analyzes the main factors affecting China's real estate prices, and focuses on the impact of monetary policy and credit policy on real estate prices by China's housing price data from 2000 to 2017. The results show that in the short term, the positive impact of inflation rate, deposit reserve ratio and personal housing loan interest rate will lead to rising house prices, and its long-term positive impact will lead to a decline in house price. Among them, the inflation rate and the deposit reserve ratio have relatively little explanatory power on real estate price fluctuations. However, the personal housing loan interest rate has become the main factor affecting China's real estate prices, and it is also the most effective control policy tool.