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Data Driven Machine Learning Models for Shale Gas Adsorption Estimation

机译:页岩气吸附估计的数据驱动机器学习模型

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Accurate calculation of adsorbed shale gas content is critical for gas reserve evaluation and development.However, gas adsorption and desorption experiments are expensive and time-consuming, while physics-based models and empirical correlations are unable to accurately capture the adsorption characteristics fordifferent shales. Langmuir adsorption is one of the most commonly used model for calculating the adsorbedgas content in shale gas reservoirs. However, most existing correlations for the Langmuir pressure andLangmuir volume in the model are oversimplified based on limited experimental data points. Thus theyare not representative of key geological parameters and are far from accurate for prediction in many cases.We developed a variety of machine learning models that are multivariable controlled to quantify shale gasadsorption. The data-driven method subdivides into two procedures: data compilation and machine learningregression. Over 700 data entries, composed of reservoir temperature (T, °C), total organic carbon (TOC,wt%), vitrinite reflectance (Ro,%), Langmuir pressure, and Langmuir volume are compiled from shale gasplays mainly in USA, Canada, and China. Data have been consistently curated, then machine learningapproaches, including multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest(RF) and artificial neural network (ANN), have been built, trained and tested by partitioning the datainto 75%:25%. For SVM, RF and NN models, 1000 simulations were run and averaged for performancecomparison. MLR identifies non-negligible parameters and general trends for shale gas adsorption. Nonetheless, thecorrelation coefficients from MLR are far from satisfactory. For Langmuir pressure, RF models fit best tothe data entries and the other models follow the order of SVM > ANN > MLR. Particularly, RF modelsshow the highest performance stability with the averaged R-squared value of 0.84 and the maximum of 0.87,indicating a very strong relationship constructed for these 213 data entries. For 485 Langmuir volume dataentries, RF models also perform best while the other three regression methods are comparable. It should benoted that altering machine learning model structure and parameters could significantly affect the regressionresults.
机译:准确计算吸附的页岩气体含量对于燃气储备评估和开发至关重要。然而,随着气体吸附和解吸实验,昂贵且耗时,而基于物理学的模型和经验相关性无法准确捕捉到更平等的Shales的吸附特性。 Langmuir吸附是用于计算页岩气藏的吸附剂含量最常用的模型之一。然而,模型中Langmuir压力和Langmuir体积的最现有的相关性基于有限的实验数据点超薄。因此,在许多情况下,他们不代表关键地质参数,远非准确地进行预测。我们开发了各种机器学习模型,这些模型是量化的,以量化页岩气吸收。数据驱动方法将分为两种过程:数据编译和机器学习。超过700个数据条目,由储层温度(T,°C)组成,总有机碳(TOC,WT%),vitriin in反射率(RO,%),朗米尔压力和Langmuir体积主要是在美国,加拿大的Sheale Gasplay和中国。通过分区DataIto 75,已经构建,培训和测试了数据已经始终策划,包括多元线性回归(MLR),支持向量机(SVM),随机森林(RF)和人工神经网络(ANN)。 %:25%。对于SVM,RF和NN型号,运行1000个模拟并为PerformanceComparison进行平均。 MLR识别页岩气吸附的不可忽略的参数和一般趋势。尽管如此,来自MLR的TheCrelation系数远远令人满意。对于Langmuir压力,RF模型适合最佳数据条目,其他型号遵循SVM> ANN> MLR的顺序。特别地,RF模型具有0.84的平均R线值的最高性能稳定性,最大​​值为0.87,表示为这些213数据条目构建的非常强的关系。对于485朗梅卷数量,RF型号也最得最佳,而另外三种回归方法是可比的。它应该培养,改变机器学习模型结构和参数可能会显着影响回归资料。

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