INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

摘要

Climate variability may play an important role in the South African electricity production. Several studies were conducted in the past to investigate the factors which modulate the national electricity production. This study investigates the influence of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as a proxy of climate variability in South Africa, on national electricity production over a 27-year period from 1985-2011. Various linear statistical tools were used to study the electricity consumption trends in South Africa, the SOI trends and variability, the annual temperature distribution over the country, the SOI-electricity consumption correlation and periodicity in the national electricity production. The results have shown a statistically-significant relationship between the SOI and national electricity production. Further results showed the inverse relations between South African surface temperatures and electricity production, particularly in the coastal regions. A spectral analysis on the detrended electricity production data also revealed cycles which include the SOI signal of 3.85 years. The results in this study will assist in understanding the modulation of electricity production and also contribute to the prediction of the electricity production, particularly in the current changing climate environment.