Climate change and electricity consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: assessing the dynamic responses to climate variability

摘要

Electricity consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa has surged over the past two decades, whereas economic fundamentals like growth in gross domestic product (GDP) might have contributed to this trend, the impact of changing climatic conditions cannot be underestimated. This study therefore investigates the dynamics among electricity consumption, temperature variability (a proxy for climate change) and economic growth, while controlling for urbanization within a structural vector error correction model for 11 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Findings from the study indicate that a positive shock in temperature variability has a positive permanent effect on electricity consumption for all the countries except Togo, South Africa and Zimbabwe. In the case of Togo we find only transitory effects of positive shocks in temperature variability on electricity consumption. However, these effects are minimal, given the low penetration rate for air conditioners and heating devices in these countries. Moreover the findings further indicate that the effects of a positive shock in temperature variability on real GDP is consistent in terms of the direction of the effects, which is negative, but only vary across the sampled countries in relation to the period(s) the effects of the shocks completely diminished.