VALIDATING A FREQUENTLY USED POKER-PLAYING HEURISTIC BY MEANS OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

摘要

When a decision must be made, the decision maker is often faced with a lack of time or a lack of data necessary to perform a proper problem analysis. In this situation, the decision maker might choose to use heuristics as a means of selecting between several decision alternatives. This paper will validate, through Monte Carlo simulation, a heuristic commonly employed in the playing of a popular poker game. The simulation will demonstrate that the heuristic tested does indeed provide acceptable approximations for predicting the likelihood of specific outcomes.