The global steel industry's structure is in the midst of profound change as Chinese domestic steel demand has entered a significant downward phase. As it became evident to the Chinese mills in early-2015 that they were probably facing years of significant oversupply, they launched a steel product export offensive. Unwittingly, they drove their hot-rolled band export price to a level well below the marginal cost of the median-cost producer. In fact, by last December the Chinese export price at about $265 per tonne, FOB the port of export, was about $70 per tonne, or 15%, below the median mill's marginal cost when taking into account the cost of delivering the steel to the port of export. Reflecting their aggressive posture, exports in the latter months of 2015 rose to a 120 million tonne annual rate versus only about 50-60 million tonnes a few years earlier.The Chinese "steel exporting armada," as it's been called by WSD, has become an
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