Research of the Relationship between Defense Expenditure and Economic Operation Based on Unconstrained VAR Model

摘要

Based on unstructured dynamic modeling theory, collected data samples 37 years to establish unconstrained VAR model to analyze operating rules among defense expenditure, economic growth and private consumption. Research showed that there was a long-term balanced relationship among three factors. Economic growth and private consumption had a significant positive effect on defense expenditure, although not defense expenditure on economic growth and private consumption have a "crowding-out effect", but overall defense expenditure was still present negative scale characteristics, "spillover effect" was not obvious, needed to further strengthen the civil-military integration, improve scientific prediction capability of defense expenditure.