Creating a Likelihood and Consequence Model to Analyse Rising Main Bursts

摘要

A model was created that analysed the likelihood and consequence of a sewage rising main bursting at any given time. Likelihood of failure was analysed through factor analysis using GIS data and historical rising main bursts data. Consequence was analysed through spatial analysis on GIS using multiple spatial joins, property density and a cost of tankering model that was created using data from GIS. This analysis created a likelihood and consequence score for each section of rising main to then create a combined overall risk score. These outputs were then used to develop a rising main planning tool in the data presentation programme Tableau to identify the high risk sites and target asset maintenance and rehab works. This paper will explain how the tool was created and the benefits of the final outputs.