Discrete Event Simulation Application in Distribution of Refugees

摘要

Nowadays, the refugee crisis has become a worldwide problem. This paper aims to predict refugee crises, design optimal routes and simulate the movement of refugees. Finally, a policy recommendation is proposed, totally based on my research, to those concerned. Firstly, refugee acceptance index is proposed in this paper to predict the refugee population in European countries. Factors, like the safety of six travel routes, a specific country's GDP, and population density, are integrated in the evaluation system. With Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process applied to my model, each country's refugee acceptance index can be exactly calculated and thus assessed. In order to analyze the flow of refugees, I propose a discrete event simulation model. To begin with, a migration route network including 35 cities of 29 European cities is set up. Then, the shortest path between cities can be calculated according to Floyd algorithm. Last, main rules are applied to predict the refugee population of being accepted or deported by each city. To simulate better the dynamic characteristics of refugee crisis, noise interference is used to simulate unstable factors in real situation, which is a random number. Compared with the traditional distribution results, now a proper number of refugees can gather at an ideal city. What's more, the final number of refugees at each city is more homogeneous. So, I suggest that an ideal city should be given priority to offer more rescue; besides, non-governmental organizations are supposed to raise more traffic supplies and guide refugees to choose the optimal path. In order to solve this problem, some specific solutions are proposed, such as increasing refugees allowance to improve the acceptance rate of refugees, adding new cities to the network according to principle of proximity and refugee acceptance index, etc. For example, it is suggested that Sweden and Russia should be given priority. The proposed models are very flexible, which are adapted to predict the flow of refugees under different disturbances and emergencies. Government and non-governmental organizations can use the models to predict the flow of refugees so that they can arrange for the allocation of resources in advance. Meanwhile, refugees can use my model to choose the best possible route to their ideal destination.