A HYBRID MODELING APPROACH OF CAR USES IN GERMANY BASED ON EMPIRICAL DATA WITH DIFFERENT GRANULARITIES

摘要

The usage of private cars in Germany has not yet been analyzed from a longitudinal perspective due to the fact that most travel surveys only consider a single day. The daily car usage is not identical over a certain period because the car owners use their car for daily routines, e.g. commuting as well as for seldom events such as holiday trips. Another problem of short-period surveys is that they underestimate the share of cars that is used for long distance travel. Our work may help to make more reliable and realistic statements to what extent German cars could be replaced by electric vehicles. We developed a hybrid modeling approach that aims to obtain the car mileage per day for a period of a full year. This approach is based on empirical data with different granularities. Input data are derived from the annually conducted German Mobility Panel, the fuel consumption and odometer reading survey and the long distance travel survey INVERMO. We show that 13.1% of the modeled German private car fleet never exceeds 100 km per day during a full year. Furthermore, cars are driven more than 100 km on 13.3 days per year on average. First, and thus, main cars of a household are rather used for longer distances than second cars. A comparison of average mobility figures of the model approach with the German National Travel Survey MiD shows the model results as reliable and realistic.