CALIFORNIA BEYOND SB 375: EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF PROPOSED LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENTS ON FUTURE TRAVEL PATTERNS AND INTERREGIONAL TRAVEL BEHAVIOR

摘要

This study investigates the potential changes in transportation patterns in California associated with the development of smart growth-inspired transportation and land use policies through the application of the California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM). California’s Senate Bill 375 requires local Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to develop Sustainable Community Strategies (SCSs) in their Regional Transportation Plans (RTPs), in an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, among other environmental goals, through the integration of land use and transportation planning. Most SCSs are currently under development; however, some concerns have already been raised about whether these proposed policies will be able to achieve the proposed environmental targets. In this study, we simulate future transportation demand in California in 2035 through the application of the California Statewide Travel Demand Model and the simulation of policy scenarios inspired by the SCSs developed so far by local MPOs. The study provides insights on the impact of the proposed changes in land use and of the planned transportation investments on both regional and interregional mobility patterns in California. We discuss the expected impact of the proposed policies and compare these results to the outcomes of a more conservative “control” scenario, based on the previous RTPs developed by local MPOs (before the introduction of the SCSs). Reductions of VMT per capita are predicted for all regions that have developed SCSs, with greater reductions in larger metropolitan areas.