CALIFORNIA BEYOND SB 375: EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF PROPOSED LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENTS ON FUTURE TRAVEL PATTERNS AND INTERREGIONAL TRAVEL BEHAVIOR

摘要

This study investigates the potential changes in transportation patterns in California associatedwith the development of smart growth-inspired transportation and land use policies through theapplication of the California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM). California’s SenateBill 375 requires local Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to develop SustainableCommunity Strategies (SCSs) in their Regional Transportation Plans (RTPs), in an effort toreduce greenhouse gas emissions, among other environmental goals, through the integration ofland use and transportation planning. Most SCSs are currently under development; however,some concerns have already been raised about whether these proposed policies will be able toachieve the proposed environmental targets. In this study, we simulate future transportationdemand in California in 2035 through the application of the California Statewide Travel DemandModel and the simulation of policy scenarios inspired by the SCSs developed so far by localMPOs. The study provides insights on the impact of the proposed changes in land use and of theplanned transportation investments on both regional and interregional mobility patterns inCalifornia. We discuss the expected impact of the proposed policies and compare these results tothe outcomes of a more conservative “control” scenario, based on the previous RTPs developedby local MPOs (before the introduction of the SCSs). Reductions of VMT per capita arepredicted for all regions that have developed SCSs, with greater reductions in larger metropolitanareas.