Synopsis of Bicycle Demand in the City of Toronto: Application of an Integrated Econometric Model with Latent Variables

摘要

This paper provides an empirical basis for the evaluation of policies and programs that can increase the choice of biking, biking for different purposes as well as bike ownership. It uses an integrated econometric model that accommodates a latent variable endogenously. Empirical models are estimated by using a 2009 bicycle demand survey in the City of Toronto. Empirical investigation reveals that latent perception of bikeability and ‘safety consciousness’ directly influence the choice of biking. It is also found that level of bike ownership is an indicator of bike ownership propensity that is directly influenced by latent comfortability of biking and has a strong influence on the choices of biking for different purposes. It is clear that bike users in the City of Toronto are highly safety conscious. Increasing on-street and separate bike lanes proved to have the maximum effects on attracting more people to biking by increasing the perception of bikeability in the city, comfortability of biking in the city and increasing bike users’ sense of safety. In terms of individuals’ characteristics, older males are found to be the most conformable and younger females are the least comfortable group of cyclists in Toronto.