In Asian developing countries, car transport demand and consequent emissions have rapidly increased from significant growth in the economy and urban population. To tackle the global climate-change problem, long-term measures are required for them to reduce drastic amount of CO_2 emissions from transport. Development of mass-transit systems is one of key low-carbon transport measures. A mass-transit system is a low-carbon transport system not only because their transport capacity is large, but also because it can slow the process of urban sprawl and motorization. In this study, we backcast a necessary scale of mass-transit development to achieve the target of CO_2 mitigation in Asian developing megacities, taking account of the long-term impacts of development on urban sprawl and motorization. The long-term impact of mass-transit development on motorization is modeled in a general way by capturing the impact of development timing in growing cities. In addition, we estimate the demand of mass-transit use based on population density to decide the suitable type of a mass-transit system, such as urban heavy railways and light railways, in terms of the capability of transport. The amount of long-term CO_2 reduction from mass-transit development is estimated with a method of Life Cycle Assessment, including infrastructure construction and transit operation.
展开▼
