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Mapping Statistical Characteristics of Frosts in Iran

机译:伊朗霜冻的统计特征

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To model and map the statistical characteristics of frost in Iran, the data related to the minimum daily temperature for a 15-year period (1990-2005) was obtained from Iran Meteorological Organization. Then using multivariate regression models, the relationship among five statistical characteristics, i.e. the mean Julian day of the first frost, mean Julian day of the last frost, mean number of frost days per year, mean length of the frost period and mean length of growing season were modeled by three geo - climate factors: elevation, longitude and latitude. The precision of each model was explored using four hypotheses: linearity of the relationship between independent variables and the dependent variable, normality of errors, constancy of error variance and lake of correlation of errors were tested, and their precisions were confirmed. At the second stage, contour lines resulting from STRM were converted to the point features class. Altogether, 661'474 points were gathered from all over Iran. Then, the studied five frost characteristics were generalized to 661'474 points; then, the regionalization maps of statistical characteristics of frost were obtained for Iran using Kriging interpolation method. The results showed that the temperature of highland areas above 4'200 m above sea level always was at least zero and below zero during the year, and also the coastal strip of southern Iran had no frost. Elevation was the most effective factor in the spatial arrangement for the frequency of occurrence of Julian day of the first frost. The most effective factors in spatial arrangement for the frequency of occurrence of Julian day of the last frost, length of frost period and length of growing season were elevation and latitude. Finally, spatial arrangement for the frequency of occurrence of the frost days was also a function of three factors of elevation, longitude and latitude. The dominant role of elevation in spatial arrangement for the occurrence of the first frost day in Iran showed that the occurrence of the first frost day in Iran could be of the type of radiation frosts and the dominant role of elevation and latitude demonstrated that late-winter frosts can be mostly of the type of advection frosts. Therefore, arrangement of statistical features of frost in Iran is both a function of geo - climate factors and the synoptic systems which have entered the country.
机译:为了模拟和绘制伊朗霜冻的统计特征,从伊朗气象组织获得了与15年期限(1990-2005)的最低日常温度相关的数据。然后使用多变量回归模型,五个统计特征之间的关系,即第一个霜的平均朱利安日,平均每年霜冻的朱利安日,霜冻时期的平均长度和成长的平均长度季节被三个地质气候因素建模:海拔,经度和纬度。使用四个假设探讨了每个模型的精度:独立变量与从属变量之间关系的线性,错误的误差常态,误差方差的恒定和误差的相关性,并确认了它们的精确。在第二阶段,STRM产生的轮廓线被转换为点特征类。共有661'474积分从伊朗各地收集。然后,研究五个霜冻特征是普遍化至661'474点;然后,使用Kriging插值方法获得伊朗获得霜的统计特征的区域化图。结果表明,海拔4'200米以上高于4'200米的高温始终至少零,低于零,而南伊朗沿海地带也没有霜冻。高级是第一个霜冻日朱利安日发生频率的空间安排中最有效的因素。最后一个霜冻日朱利安日发生频率的空间安排中最有效的因素,霜冻时期长度和生长季节的长度是高度和纬度。最后,霜冻发生频率的空间布置也是提升,经度和纬度的三个因素的函数。伊朗第一个霜冻日出现的空间安排的主导作用表明,伊朗第一个霜冻日的发生可能是辐射霜的类型,高度和纬度的主导作用表现为晚冬季霜冻主要是主要是平流霜的类型。因此,伊朗霜统计特征的安排是地质气候因素和进入该国的天气系统的函数。

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