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A new method for fusion of measured and model-derived solar radiation time-series

机译:测量和模型衍生太阳辐射时间序列融合的新方法

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When planning solar plants project developers and financers consider the long-term average of solar radiation and its uncertainty as the most important site selection criteria. Accurate time series of at least 10 years length are needed to calculate realistic estimates of such long-term averages. Ground-based measurements usually are not available for long time periods, but satellite-derived data may show significant differences compared to more accurate ground-measured values with respect to instantaneous values and frequency distribution. To overcome these shortcomings a new method for adaption of satellite-derived solar radiation values to ground measured time-series is developed. One year of overlapping time period is used for training the adaption. A weighted polynomial fit with additional constraints is then applied to the remaining satellite-derived solar radiation values. The method is tested at two sites for four satellite data models. The results show improvements for all data sets. After applying the adaption also during periods where no ground-based measurements are available the bias on average is nearing 0 % for most models. This requires that the satellite-derived data realistically represent the interannual variability. Frequency distributions are also matching better. Especially this is the case for maxima, which can be critical for design purposes.
机译:当规划太阳能电厂项目开发商和融资师认为太阳辐射的长期平均值及其不确定性作为最重要的场地选择标准。需要至少10年长度的准确时间序列来计算这种长期平均值的现实估计。与瞬时值和频率分布相比,卫星衍生数据通常不可用的基于地基测量值,但是卫星衍生的数据可以显示出显着的差异。为了克服这些缺点,开发了一种新方法,用于将卫星衍生的太阳辐射值适应接地测量的时间系列。一年的重叠时间段用于培训适应。然后将具有附加约束的加权多项式配合应用于剩余的卫星衍生的太阳辐射值。该方法在两个卫星数据模型的两个站点进行测试。结果显示所有数据集的改进。在施加适应后,在没有基于基于基于基于基于基于基于基于地面的测量的情况下,大多数模型的偏差将接近0%。这要求卫星衍生的数据实际地代表续际变异性。频率分布也匹配更好。特别是这是Maxima的情况,这对于设计目的来说至关重要。

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