THE FUTURE OF HYDROGEN ENERGY: TRENDS, CHALLENGES AND NEEDS OF HYDROGEN WITHIN EACH STAGE OF THE VALUE CHAIN

摘要

The European Union is aiming greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 95% by 2050 Weidner et al. (2016), which means that there is an urge for a less polluting, zero-emission, and sustainable energy alternative arnason (2000). Hydrogen, with its favorable physical characteristics, is considered to be the future of the energy sector. In the recent years, the vast amount of literature in the subject has focused on forecasting, backcasting, roadmaping, and writing visionaries about the hydrogen economy. But, none of them has targeted the value chain technologies and the challenges that the hydrogen energy will face within the each stage of the value chain in the future. This paper contributes to the technological transition theories in general, and the technology push and market pull theory in particular. It uses one of the completest worldwide patent publication data sources (Lens patent database) for 56 years (1960-2016), and combines both quantitative and qualitative methods to forecast not only the technological trends but also the challenges that the hydrogen technologies in each stage of the value chain (production, storage, delivery, and application) will face within the next 5 years. The results show that hydrogen production, storage, and usage technologies are in their maturity phase, while hydrogen transportation and delivery technologies have already saturated. High production costs, system efficiency, and generation of hydrogen from the fossil fuels are considered to be the main challenges of hydrogen production. System weight and volume, system cost, and efficiency will be the three main challenges of hydrogen storage, while infrastructure and costs will challenge the transportation and price, infrastructure, and efficiency will limit the usage of hydrogen.