HOW TO DEVELOP A MARKET FOR PROSUMERS IN BRAZIL AN INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE FOR DISTRIBUTED PHOTOVOLTAIC GENERATION

摘要

Energy markets are changing due several technological advancements that include renewable energy systems, electric vehicles and the emergence of “prosumers”. The term prosumers is defined by Toffler (1989) for consumers that also produce goods and services for their own consumption. It is a new “creative destruction”, considering the traditional energy utilities business model: generation – transmission – distribution – consumption. Therefore, following an international trend in 2012 the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) approved the rule no 482 / 2012, which established the requirements for the access of micro and mini distributed energy generation and also for the access to the net metering system. Since that time this rule has been updated and in 2016 it was allowed the remote self-consumption and the shared energy generation; however, in spite of these initiatives, no significant growth is observed. Thus, considering Brazilian potential for solar irradiation and an economic environment with scarce public funds, we propose a method to develop a market for photovoltaic prosumers in Brazil, including both the financing and investment sides – a private investor point of view. This paper is organized as follows: after the introduction, giving more details about the situation of prosumers and photovoltaic residential energy generation in Brazil, the second section describes the approach, that starts with a cost-benefit analysis of this kind of investments for all Brazilian regions. The third section describes the strategy used to compute some viability indicators and the scenario analysis, that includes the effects of diferent taxation regimes and business models. The final section discusses policy implications and research extensions.