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Energy Security in post-Paris Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios for European Countries

机译:巴黎后巴黎的能源安全性欧洲国家的深脱碳情景

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There is a consensus that climate policies have a positive impact on gas, coal and oil dependency thanks to decreasing consumption of fossil fuel. However, the energy security is broader concept (APERC, 2007; Hughes, 2009; Sovacool, Mukherjee, 2011; Cherp, Jewell, 2014) that should take into account the availability of supply (dependency, diversity, energy reserves) and the ability of economy to deal with energy risks, as well as the energy sould be affordable and suistainable. Even if the global impact of worldwide climate policy is fairly positive, there are also some negative impacts. Sovacool and Saunders (2014) investigate 14 measures to address climate change, but half of them are in contradiction with energy security objectives. Bollen et al. (2010) study how the combination of energy security, climate and pollution policies affect GHG emissions, polition level and oil consumption in OECD countries. The authors show that in some cases a climate policy can be inconsistent with the reduction of pollution and would simply delay peak oil consumption. Other authors point out additional potential weaknesses: reduction in supply diversity (Victor et al., 2014; Jewell et al. 2014), increasing energy dependency (Bazilian et al. 2011) etc. Our objective in this study is to analyze the European energy security in post-Paris deep decarbonisation scenarios using POLES model. We also propose a further analysis of energy security issues with respect to two elements of crucial importance in the European context: role of gas in European energy mix and the fesability of the high share of intermittent renewable in electricity mixe. This study is a part of European project RIPPLES, coordinated by French Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relation (IDDRI).
机译:有共识,由于减少化石燃料的消费,气候政策对气体政策对天然气,煤炭和石油依赖性产生了积极影响。但是,能源安全是更广泛的概念(APERC,2007; Hughes,2009; Sovacool,Mukherjee,2011; Cherp,Jewell,2014),应该考虑到供应(依赖,多样性,能源储备)和能力经济处理能源风险,以及能源可以负担得起和可行的能力。即使全球气候政策的全球影响是相当积极的,也存在一些负面影响。 Sovacool和Saunders(2014)调查14项解决气候变化的措施,但其中一半与能源安全目标相矛盾。 Bollen等人。 (2010年)研究能源安全,气候和污染政策的结合如何影响经合组织国家的温室气体排放,政治和石油消费。作者表明,在某些情况下,气候政策可能与减少污染的影响不一致,并将延迟达到峰值油耗。其他作者指出了额外的潜在弱点:供应多样性减少(Victor等,2014; Jewell等,2014),增加能源依赖(Bazilian等,2011)等。我们在本研究中的客观是分析欧洲能源Paris模型后巴黎后脱碳情景的安全性。我们还提出了对欧洲环境至关重要的两个要素的进一步分析了能源安全问题:气体在欧洲能源混合中的作用以及电力混合中的间歇性的高度份额的可变性。本研究是欧洲项目涟漪的一部分,由法国可持续发展和国际关系(IDDRI)协调。

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