Resource Booms and the Macroeconomy: The Case of U.S.Shale Oil

摘要

Technological advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have led to an unprecedented increase in U.S.oil production.Often referred to as the shale or fracking revolution,the boom in U.S.oil production has renewed interest in the long-standing question on the link between resource booms and economic performance.There are several recent papers focusing on the local or regional implications of the U.S.shale boom,suggesting positive economic effects.However,little is known about the implications of this boom for the U.S.aggregate economy and trade.In this paper,we study the importance and implications of the U.S.oil boom for the U.S.economy,trade balances,and the global oil market in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy that takes into account unique haracteristics of the U.S.experience: a large increase in production of a certain type of crude oil with an oil export ban in place.