Energy Sector Impacts of Meeting China’s Pledges under the Paris Agreement

摘要

The 21st Session of the Conference of Parties(COP21)to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)held in Paris in November-December 2015 agreed to reduce global GHG emissions to the level to stabilize the increase in the mean earth surface temperature below 2 Celsius from pre-industrialized period(UNFCCC,2015).This agreement is known as the'Paris Agreement’.In this Agreement,both developed and developing countries committed,though voluntarily,to implement various GHG mitigation measures as appropriate to their national circumstances.Mitigation of GHG emissions through these measures is termed as their'nationally determined contribution(NDC)’.Most parties to the UNFCCC made quantified GHG mitigation pledges to be met by year 2030 through the implementation of their NDCs.China has committed a goal of reducing its emission intensity(i.e.,CO2 emissions per unit of GDP)by 60 to 65 percent below 2005 levels.It has also set a goal of increasing the share of non-fossil fuels to 20% of its total primary energy consumption by 2030.Using an energy sector optimization model,TIMES,this study analyses the energy sector impacts of meeting China’s NDC targets.