Assessment of risk factors and harmonics incidence based on the epidemiological methodology

摘要

A methodology based on epidemiological analysis for assessing risk factors and harmonic distortion incidence rate in a distribution network is proposed in this paper. The methodology analyzes the current harmonics emission risk at the PCC due to the connection of disturbing loads. These loads are modeled and multiple loads connection scenarios are simulated using Monte Carlo Algorithms. From the simulation results, potential risk factors for critical harmonics indicators are identified, leading to a classification of the scenarios into groups of exposed or unexposed to risk factors. Finally, the incidence rate of harmonics is calculated for each load connection scenario and the risk of critical harmonics scenarios due to the exposure to risk factors is estimated.