Energy Consumption and CO_2 Emissions of Beijing Heating System: Based on a System Dynamics Model

摘要

Beijing is a typical North China city, and it uses about 15-18% of its total energy consumption for heating. The building construction industry is also a key source of CO_2 emissions. This article, based on a system dynamics model, aims to simulate and forecast Beijing's energy consumption and CO_2 emissions under different scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, the energy consumption of Beijing's heating system in 2030 will be 15.44 MTce and the corresponding CO_2 emissions will be 9.71 MT. Gas is the major energy source for heating systems, accounting for more than 60% of the energy used. In the less building scenario, the energy used for heating in 2030 is projected to be 13.91 MTce, 9.88% less than baseline scenario. The cumulative saving in energy used for heating will be 19.39 MTce, with CO_2 reductions of 12.38 MT. In the energy efficiency scenario, the energy consumed for heating in 2030 is projected to be 13.16 MTce, 14.73% less than baseline scenario. The cumulative saving in energy used for heating is projected to be 21.02 MTce, with a CO_2 reduction of 12.13 MT. Thus, to achieve greater energy savings, a combination of policy measures, from both the demand side (smaller residential properties) and the technology side is needed.