The Quantitative Risk Analysis of Water Pipe Bridge on Earthquake-Case study of SinDian Water Pipe Bridge

摘要

Earthquake is characterized by unpredictable and destructive, compared to other natural disasters. In order to enhance the effectiveness and reliability of seismic management measures, this study combined quantitative risk analysis techniques (event tree analysis and fault tree analysis) to carry out water pipe bridge seismic safety assessment. Based on the chief consideration that to maintenance water supply in the aftermath of the earthquake, this paper deduced the possible failure events (damage situation) of the water pipe bridge caused by the earthquake through the event tree analysis, and analyzed possible failure elements of each failure event through the fault tree analysis. Then, the important risk factors could be prioritized by the results of quantitative analysis. In this study, the probability of each failure element mainly was analyzed by the following two ways: (1) The probability of the failure element related to structural damage was analyzed through the vulnerability of the bridge. (2) The probability of the failure element related to material damage was analyzed through the reliability of the material. At last, this paper carry on the case study of Sindian water pipe bridge as reference.