Qualitative analysis of the failure risk of water pipes in terms of water supply safety

摘要

The work detailed here has sought to analyse the effects of emergency states on water-supply pipelines. For this purpose, a model hydraulic pipe network was created in Epanet 2, on the basis of actual operational data. Using the model, pipeline failures were simulated, and their effects described. The research methodology entails the simulated closure (i.e. failure) of individual pipes in the supply network, as followed by comparative analysis of the distribution of pressure across that network, in failure-free conditions and during a failure. The effects of failure in individual sections could thus be determined, in relation to the area with pressure lowered below the required value, the duration of that pressure reduction, and the potential number of recipients affected by limitation of water supply. The areas most exposed to pressure fluctuations in the water supply as a consequence of pipe-failure are thus pinpointed, with simulation results also serving in in the calculation of indicators for the risk of failure.