SAWE Paper No. 3468 - Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk in Vehicle Mass Properties Throughout the Design Development Phase

摘要

In the acquisition of any new vehicle program, whether it be a marine, space, aircraft or ground transportation vehicle, there is the need throughout the life-cycle development phases to periodically assess the level of uncertainty and risk in the estimated or calculated prediction of the delivered vehicle mass properties characteristics (such as weight, center of gravity, or mass moment of inertia). Published industry standards for control of mass properties characteristics identify the components necessary for a desired outcome, yet occasionally there is a vehicle acquisition program which falls short of that desired mark. There can be many causes for this occurrence, and the causes can even appear within a program having a robust mass properties control plan. The focus of this research is on the unpredictability in the uncertainty of the reported values and associated risks, and the application of a hybrid approach to quantify that uncertainty and risk. Using current mass properties control techniques integrated with management science risk analysis approaches, the process is evaluated on an existing vehicle acquisition program covering a span of several years.