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Global Petroleum Supply and Pricing: Is the World really running Out of Oil

机译:全球石油供应和定价:世界上真正用完了石油

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Oil, the engine that drives the global growth and development economy, is the most significant and highly traded commodity worldwide. Since replacing coal in the last century, oil has remained the primary source of global energy. However, there is apprehension that oil production has peaked or will peak in the near future and that imminent drastic depletion will usher in a permanent oil shock era. This paper evaluates the key components of global petroleum resources and supply availability to assess whether the world is running out of oil or running into it. Empirical analysis of global exploration and development performance indicators suggests promising prospects for world petroleum resource development and supply. Over 160 percent of worldwide produced conventional oil reserves were replaced over the last 38 years in the aggregate. The reserves-production ratio has remained above 35 years over the last 20+ years, on average, despite the rapidity of global oil extraction. Empirical evidence also suggests that the crude oil market is not as "tight" as it was in the 1970s when the historical production equivalent year of global reserves fell as low as 27 years in comparison to the estimated life of 40+ years at yearend 2008. The world may be running out of "low-priced oil"; but, this trend is not because of geological exhaustibility. For, economics and technology, in addition, to geology matter in the debate on whether we are running out of oil or running into oil.
机译:石油是推动全球增长和发展经济的发动机,是全球最重要且高度交易的商品。由于在上个世纪取代煤炭以来,石油仍然是全球能源的主要来源。然而,有令人置免的是,石油产量已达到顶峰或将在不久的将来达到高峰,即将发生的急剧耗尽将迎来永久性油震时代。本文评估了全球石油资源的关键组成部分,并提供可用性,以评估世界是否耗尽油或跑步。全球勘探和发展绩效指标的实证分析表明世界石油资源开发和供应的有希望的前景。超过160%的全球生产的传统石油储量在汇总的过去38年内取代。尽管全球石油提取的速度迅速,但储量 - 生产率在过去20多年以上35岁以上。经验证据还表明,原油市场并不像20世纪70年代那样“紧张”,当时全球储备的历史产量等同于2008年估计40多年的估计生命率低至27年。世界可能耗尽“低价油”;但是,这种趋势不是因为地质套件。另外,由于我们是否用石油或跑进油,因此,经济和技术,在辩论中以辩论或跑进油。

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