'FUELS DEMAND BY LIGHT VEHICLES AND MOTORCYCLES IN BRAZIL'

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the consumption of gasoline, alcohol and natural gas vehicle (NGV) by light vehicles and motorcycles in Brazil. Through the estimation of fleets per consumption class, in an environment influenced by a new engine technology (flex-fuel), this exercise estimates the fleet- elasticity of cars (and motorcycles) powered by gasoline, hydrated alcohol, natural gas vehicle (NGV) and flex-fuel, in addition to the income elasticity within the period from January, 2000 to December, 2008. This paper uses an alternative variable as income proxy and estimates the five different fleets through the combination of vehicles sales and scrapping curves. This paper's conclusion is that given specific issues of the Brazilian fuel market, in special prices and technological innovations, the fleets' equations for the consumption of the three fuels represent in a more significant manner the relationships expected between supply and demand variables than the commonly used functions of prices and income.