'FUELS DEMAND BY LIGHT VEHICLES AND MOTORCYCLES IN BRAZIL'

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to analyze theconsumption of gasoline, alcohol andnatural gas vehicle (NGV) by lightvehicles and motorcycles in Brazil.Through the estimation of fleets perconsumption class, in an environmentinfluenced by a new engine technology(flex-fuel), this exercise estimates the fleetelasticityof cars (and motorcycles)powered by gasoline, hydrated alcohol,natural gas vehicle (NGV) and flex-fuel, inaddition to the income elasticity within theperiod from January, 2000 to December,2008. This paper uses an alternativevariable as income proxy and estimates thefive different fleets through thecombination of vehicles sales andscrapping curves. This paper’s conclusionis that given specific issues of the Brazilianfuel market, in special prices andtechnological innovations, the fleets’equations for the consumption of the threefuels represent in a more significantmanner the relationships expected betweensupply and demand variables than thecommonly used functions of prices andincome.