An Indicator and Model System Predicting National Macroeconomic Risks - A Study Based on the Lessons of Historic Economic Crises and the Current Global Recession

摘要

The paper establishes an indicator and model system aiming at predicting macroeconomic risks for a nation. The main characters of the system lie in the several aspects: it focuses on national macroeconomic risks rather than complex risks or the risks for some special business or department; it selects only the indicators which possess the most important influences directly on the macro-economy and the indicators with each others are separately in causality and logic; it learns the lessons from the macroeconomic crises in history and from the current global recession resulted from the financial tsunami; it is a general system for the various nations. The eleven indicators with the models are given and the main reasons for the selection are explained.