Uncertainty in the Relationship Between Flow and Parameters in Models of Pollutant Transport

摘要

A fluorescent dye-tracer study is usually performed under steady-state flow conditions. However, the model parameters, estimated using the tracer data, depend on the discharges. This paper investigates the uncertainty of the relationship between discharges and parameters of a transient storage and an aggregated dead zone model. We apply a Bayesian statistical approach to derive the cumulative distribution of a range of model parameters conditioned on discharges. The set of tracer data consists of eighteen tracer concentration profiles taken at two cross-sections from the Murray Burn, a stream flowing through the Heriot-Watt University Campus at Riccarton in Edinburgh.