CHINA SHALE GAS ECONOMIC EVALUATION BASED ON MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

摘要

Shale gas development has initially commercialized in China. However, the research on shale gas economic is very rare. Most of the literature focused on shale gas resources assessment or socio-economic impact, but ignoring the systematic analysis of shale gas economic, such as production capacity analysis, production cost analysis, etc. This study aims to analyze earnings of shale gas single well. Monte Carlo method is used to determine a number of factors affect the economy of a single well. It starts with selecting suitable statistics and prediction methods to confirm the major evaluation parameters of shale gas, such as single well recoverable reserves, single well composite cost and gas price. Then, economic benefit of shale gas single well projects was evaluated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine the probability distribution of the indexes that influence economic evaluation of single well projects. The sensitive factors that can influence financial internal return rate (FIRR) and net present value (NPV) of shale gas single well projects were quantitatively analyzed. The correlations between impact factors and indexes were calculated and sorted. Finally, feasibility and risk level of single well projects were confirmed. This study determined the well cost and gas price are the most significant factors that affect single well economic performance. It also confirmed the feasibility of single well project, which can provide theoretical support for effectively controlling shale gas well cost, and reasonably and commercially developing shale gas reservoirs.