On the use of probabilistic wind fields for forecasting storm surge and inundation

摘要

Hurricanes are widely recognized as one of the most costly natural disasters impacting the U. S. Strong winds and coastal inundation can lead to significant property damage and loss of life. This paper discusses the surge and inundation response of Charlotte Harbor, FL to inaccuracies in forecasting a hurricane's projected path using probabilistically-based ensembles of synthetic wind and pressure fields. Two methods to generate the ensembles are developed which are based on cross-track errors between the historical "best track" and forecast model guidance from the National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Charley (2004). Using CH3D-SSMS, the resulting surge and inundation response for each ensemble member is combined to produce Maximum of Maximum (MOM) and probability of exceedance (POE) products. Comparisons show that both methods yield similar products and that assuming a normal distribution of errors does not significantly impact results.