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RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF AUTOMOTIVE SEMI-AXLE ON BASIC OF IMPRECISE PROBABILITY

机译:汽车半轴的可靠性分析对不精确概率的基础

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Most reliability models in the classical reliability theory use probability theory to quantify information under uncertainty and these models have a high demand of available data. While in practical applications, data related to system sand components are usually sparse or incomplete, moreover, some quantification of uncertainty should be based on subjective information and moreover subjective information may often be expressed in natural language. In these cases, classical reliability theory can not provide an effective way for the reliability analysis of systems. As a generalization of probability theory, imprecise probability theory may provide a tool which is called the natural extension to solve such problems. Research on the application of imprecise probability in reliability engineering has made a great progress. Unfortunately, this is all about theory and there are few applications and cases in practice. Therefore, this paper tried to overcome the flaws and shortcomings of classical reliability theory, and apply some theories of imprecise probability in practical engineering, and conduct reliability analysis on automotive semi-axle with establishing imprecise probability-based reliability model of automotive semi-axle. Natural extension is undoubtedly a powerful tool to compute reliability measures, however, when number of variables is large; the computation of natural extension is very difficult. Effective methods to simplify and build reliability models deserve more debate in the future.
机译:经典可靠性理论中的大多数可靠性模型使用概率理论来量化不确定性下的信息,这些模型对可用数据的需求很高。虽然在实际应用中,与系统砂组分有关的数据通常是稀疏或不完整的,但是,一些不确定性的量化应基于主观信息,而且可以通过自然语言表达主观信息。在这些情况下,经典可靠性理论不能为系统的可靠性分析提供有效的方法。作为概率理论的概括,不精确的概率理论可以提供一种称为自然扩展以解决这些问题的工具。对可靠性工程不精确概率在可靠性工程中的应用研究取得了很大进展。不幸的是,这完全是关于理论,在实践中有很少的应用和案例。因此,本文试图克服经典可靠性理论的缺陷和缺点,对实际工程中的一些不精确概率的理论,对汽车半轴进行可靠性分析,建立汽车半轴的不精确概率可靠性模型。自然扩展无疑是一个强大的工具来计算可靠性措施,但是,当变量数量很大时;自然扩展的计算非常困难。简化和构建可靠性模型的有效方法在未来应得到更多争论。

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