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A Prototype Desktop Simulator for Infrastructure Protection: An Application to Decision Support for Controlling Infectious Disease Outbreaks

机译:基础设施保护的原型桌面模拟器:申请决策支持控制传染病爆发

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The Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS) project has developed a risk-informed decision support system that provides insights for making critical infrastructure protection decisions by considering many critical infrastructures and their primary inter dependencies. Initiated as a proof-of-concept in August 2003, the CIPDSS project completed a prototype model and two case studies in February 2004, using a system dynamics implementation. Since that time the project has demonstrated how the CIPDSS can assist decision makers in making informed choices by functionally representing key critical infrastructures with their inter dependencies, and computing human health & safety and economic impacts. The method of delivery to date has involved the conduct of analysis by the project developers and delivery of the results in the form of reports and presentations, often supplemented with face to face interactions with sponsors and decisions makers. This approach benefits from having the analysis conducted by the developers who best understand the underlying models and their limitations. However, this mode of delivery can be said to live more distant from those who might best benefit from being exposed to the analysis and the inherent trade-offs therein. This paper describes the development of a desktop simulation designed to help bridge this gap between the CIPDSS models & analysis and decisions makers. To illustrate the utility of this approach, an application focused on controlling infectious disease outbreaks, such as Pandemic Influenza, has been implemented.
机译:关键基础设施保护决策支持系统(CIPDSS)项目开发了一种风险信息的决策支持系统,通过考虑许多关键基础架构及其主要依赖性,提供了制定关键基础设施保护决策的见解。 CIPDSSS项目于2003年8月开始作为概念验证,使用系统动态实施完成了2004年2月的原型模型和两种案例研究。从那时起,该项目已经证明了CIPDSS如何通过在功能上代表其依赖性的关键关键基础设施以及计算人类健康和安全和经济影响来帮助决策者提供明智的选择。迄今为止交付的方法涉及项目开发商的分析,并以报告和介绍的形式交付结果,通常会辅以面对与赞助商和决策者的互动。这种方法有利于通过最佳理解潜在模式及其限制的开发人员进行分析。然而,这种交付方式可以说,从可能最佳受益于暴露于分析和其中固有的权衡的人中更遥远的那些交付方式。本文介绍了桌面仿真的开发,旨在帮助CIPDSS模型和分析和决策者之间的这种差距弥合。为了说明这种方法的效用,已经实施了专注于控制传染病爆发的应用,例如大流行性流感。

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