Managing the Risk of Tragedies, Disasters and Accidents: Elements of a General Emergent Theory

摘要

To predict the risk of when an accident or tragedy will occur, we give the elements of a general emergent theory. The predictions use the rate and probability dependent based on our experience and risk exposure. The "learning hypothesis" allows a new determination of the dynamic incident rate for any technological system. In this paper, we bring together the elements of this new treatment that provides a basis for prediction and analysis of trends, reconciling the statistical occurrence of events with the systematic effect of learning, and with the management of risk and uncertainty in modern society.