The long term plan in a block cave mine is based upon a number of assumptions about the behavior of the rock mass. Production forecasts will rely on these assumptions even when data is available to suggest modifications to those assumptions. This can compromise not only the economics of the project but also the global geomechanical stability of the mine. Even though there might be several goals that a production schedule of a block cave mine could follow, at the moment, there is no tool to measure how precisely those goals are met. Reliability theory introduces a new metric to production schedules which ultimately will measure the ability of different production strategies to achieve production targets. In this approach the reliability of a draw point can be computed using historical forecasts versus historical production data. The individual draw point reliabilities can then be linked though a set of equations to compute the overall block cave reliability. This aims to provide a different means to schedule block cave mines adding an index of uncertainty to the overall production schedule as well as the factors that contribute to it. Several examples will be presented as a proof of concept.
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