SIMULATION MODEL FOR PROJECT DURATION ESTIMATION CONSIDERING IMPACTS OF DELAY AND REWORK

摘要

A simulation model combined with certain parameters extracted from past data is proposed in this paper. To provide a possible solution dealing with the above-mentioned difficulty, we set up a protocol to extract uncertainty parameters from past log data and propose a new simulation model based on extracted parameters. After inputting task dependency and resource information as well as the past data, the project duration will be output, giving feedback to the design of human resource. The proposed protocol includes a definition of necessary past data and how to calculate minimum work amount, delay and rework probability, while the proposed simulation model includes basic model describing project structure, delay model describing variation of task work amount, and rework model describing transition among different tasks. Multiple simulation results are output and different human resource strategies are evaluated based on the results.