Bayesian Approach for Adaptive Sequential Preventive Maintenance Policy

摘要

This paper proposes an adaptive sequential preventive maintenance(PM) policy under which each PM not only reduces the hazard rate, but also slows down the degradation process of the system. We derive mathematical formulas to evaluate the expected cost rate per unit time by incorporating the PM cost, repair cost and replacement cost and propose the optimal sequential PM policy. Assuming that the failure times follow Weibull distribution, we adopt a Bayesian approach to update unknown parameters and determine the optimal sequential PM policy. The effect of some parameters on the optimal PM policy is measured numerically by sensitivity analysis and some numerical examples are presented for illustrative purposes.